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The war involving Iran in March–April 2026 led many analysts to warn that “World War III” might be imminent, and the media gave the situation extensive coverage. However, it is worth questioning whether the conflict truly represented such a significant global turning point, or whether its importance was amplified by media narratives and speculation—potentially also influencing financial markets and investor sentiment.
Let’s study together if this narative was something really important or just a way for market makers to manipulate the markets
Between March 2025 and February 2026, we witnessed a period of extraordinary market performance.
The S&P 500 climbed 38%, a figure that stands in contrast to its 20-year historical average of approximately 12% per year.
Even more notable were precious metals, with gold surging 85% and silver appreciating by more than 200% over the same timeframe.
These figures suggest that asset prices were stretched significantly above their typical growth patterns in a very short period. In light of such rapid appreciation, many observers would argue that a market correction—a cooling-off period where prices adjust downward—would not only be expected but could ultimately be a healthy development for long-term market stability.
On 28 February 2026, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, targeting military and government sites and killing several senior officials. The attack came amid nuclear negotiations and triggered retaliation from Iran, including missile and drone strikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global trade. The escalation followed years of rising tensions, including clashes in 2024 and 2025, mass protests in Iran, and a major US military buildup in early 2026.
Following the outbreak of conflict on 28 February 2026, oil and energy prices spiked immediately as markets reacted to sudden geopolitical risk. Concerns over supply disruptions and escalating tensions drove a rapid surge in energy costs.
By early March 2026, energy prices had surged over 100% within weeks as fears around supply shortages intensified. This sharp rise heightened uncertainty and began to ripple across global markets.
By mid-March 2026, the pressure triggered a broad market selloff. The S&P 500 fell more than 10%, while gold dropped over 22%, reflecting widespread risk aversion and rising volatility.
This created one of the best recent buying opportunities.
The Iran war has all the hallmarks of a real geopolitical crisis, with tangible impacts like disrupted energy supply and sharp market reactions.
However, the scale of the financial fallout also reflects how quickly fear and uncertainty can amplify moves in global markets, sometimes making the situation feel even more extreme than the underlying fundamentals alone would justify.
Although this seemed like a righteous reason for people to panic and sell their assets in order to minimize their risk, this fear may have been amplified or even induced by market makers looking to create liquidity and accumulate positions at lower prices. By triggering stop-losses and capitalizing on the emotional volatility of retail investors, these major players can effectively “buy the dip” that they helped engineer, positioning themselves to profit once the initial panic subsides and the market corrects.
Let’s examine how market makers and major institutional players have navigated the market landscape over the past few months.
Since February 2026, the Federal Reserve’s total assets have expanded by approximately $200 billion. From $6.5 Trillions to 6.7$ Trillions. This reversal marks a notable shift in policy; while the Fed previously focused on balance sheet normalization, it has effectively pivoted to a liquidity-provision model, swapping US dollars for assets to stabilize the system and offset tightening pressures.
Berkshire Hathaway’s (and other large capital firms) massive sell-off as of December 31, 2025 , is a textbook example of Warren Buffett’s “value-based” risk management. When a legendary investor like Buffett dumps nearly $3 billion of Apple (AAPL) and $2.8 billion of Bank of America (BAC) simultaneously, it signals a major shift in institutional sentiment.
Profit Taking: Buffett sold near market peaks to lock in gains, adhering to his “be fearful when others are greedy” philosophy.
Building “Dry Powder”: By converting billions in tech (Apple) and financials (BofA) into cash, Berkshire is positioning itself to buy assets at a discount when the market dips.
Risk Management: Reducing exposure to banks and trimming tech winners protects the portfolio from potential interest-rate-related downturns.
The “Smart Money” Signal: Since 13F filings reflect past moves, this sell-off served as a pre-emptive warning that the “smart money” was already bracing for the early 2026 volatility we’ve seen.
In summary, from January through April 2026, major institutional players were quietly accumulating assets at discounted prices, following a significant sell-off of their holdings in December 2025
Let’s take a closer look on how retail investors (average people) managed this conflict and their financial decisions
Google Trends
While institutional money quietly deployed capital into opportunity, positioning early as markets adapted to the volatility, retail investors were glued to headlines—driving “Iran War” searches to record highs instead of taking action.
Relentless Fear-Driven News
For months, a constant stream of aggressive, attention-grabbing news has dominated headlines. Designed to capture attention, it has driven fear among retail traders and investors—pushing many to close positions, sell part or all of their portfolios, or even bet against the market.
This reaction creates exactly what market makers need: liquidity. It allows them to accumulate large positions without significantly driving prices higher, quietly positioning themselves while others panic.
In investing, periods of optimism and downturns are inevitable. Markets move in cycles, and even the most experienced investors face uncertainty. Yet, when you look at the common thread among the most successful investors, their guidance is remarkably consistent:
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice
