Gold 0.21%
£3,209.84 OZ
Silver -2.37%
£48.56 OZ
Platinum -0.49%
£1,359.85 OZ
The Silver Britannia is capital gains tax free in the UK, making is a very popular choice with UK investors
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Silver is no stranger to volatility, but the current landscape of supply deficits, growing industrial demand, and promising technical indicators presents a compelling case for significantly higher silver prices. From both a fundamental and technical standpoint, the argument for silver surpassing $100 per ounce is stronger than ever.
| Category | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | YoY Change | 2025F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply | ||||||||||||
| Mine Production | 900.1 | 863.9 | 850.8 | 837.4 | 783.8 | 830.8 | 839.4 | 812.7 | 819.7 | 835.0 | 1% | 2% |
| Recycling | 156.3 | 160.2 | 162.3 | 163.8 | 180.5 | 190.7 | 193.5 | 183.5 | 193.9 | 193.2 | 6% | -0.4% |
| Net Hedging Supply | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | na | na |
| Net Official Sector Sales | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -9% | 4% |
| Total Supply | 1,057.4 | 1,025.1 | 1,014.3 | 1,016.2 | 974.0 | 1,023.1 | 1,034.6 | 997.8 | 1,015.1 | 1,030.6 | 2% | 2% |
| Demand | ||||||||||||
| Industrial (total) | 491.0 | 528.0 | 525.8 | 525.4 | 511.9 | 564.1 | 592.3 | 657.1 | 680.5 | 677.4 | 4% | -0.5% |
| Electrical & Electronics | 309.0 | 339.1 | 330.4 | 326.6 | 321.4 | 350.7 | 370.7 | 444.4 | 460.5 | 465.6 | 4% | 1% |
| ...of which photovoltaics | 81.6 | 99.3 | 87.0 | 74.9 | 82.8 | 88.9 | 118.1 | 192.7 | 197.6 | 195.7 | 3% | -1% |
| Brazing Alloys & Solders | 49.1 | 50.9 | 52.0 | 52.4 | 47.5 | 50.5 | 49.2 | 50.2 | 51.6 | 52.9 | 3% | 3% |
| Other Industrial | 132.9 | 138.0 | 143.5 | 146.4 | 142.9 | 162.9 | 172.4 | 162.6 | 168.4 | 158.9 | 4% | -6% |
| Photography | 34.7 | 32.4 | 31.4 | 30.7 | 26.9 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 27.3 | 25.5 | 24.2 | -7% | -5% |
| Jewelry | 189.1 | 196.2 | 203.2 | 201.6 | 150.9 | 182.0 | 234.5 | 203.1 | 208.7 | 196.2 | 3% | -6% |
| Silverware | 53.5 | 59.4 | 67.1 | 61.3 | 31.2 | 40.7 | 73.5 | 55.1 | 54.2 | 46.0 | -2% | -15% |
| Coin & Net Bar Demand | 212.9 | 155.8 | 165.9 | 187.4 | 208.1 | 284.3 | 338.3 | 244.3 | 190.9 | 204.4 | -22% | 7% |
| Net Hedging Demand | 12.0 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 17.9 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 0.0 | -62% | na |
| Total Demand | 993.3 | 972.9 | 1,000.8 | 1,006.4 | 929.0 | 1,102.4 | 1,284.2 | 1,198.5 | 1,164.1 | 1,148.3 | -3% | -1% |
| Market Balance | ||||||||||||
| Market Balance | 64.1 | 52.2 | 13.5 | 9.8 | 45.1 | -79.3 | -249.6 | -200.6 | -148.9 | -117.6 | -26% | -21% |
| Net Investment in ETPs | 53.9 | 7.2 | -21.4 | 83.3 | 331.1 | 64.9 | -117.4 | -37.6 | 61.6 | 70.0 | na | 14% |
| Market Balance less ETPs | 10.2 | 45.1 | 34.9 | -73.5 | -286.1 | -144.3 | -132.2 | -163.0 | -210.5 | -187.6 | 29% | -11% |
Silver’s market has quietly slipped into a deepening structural deficit over the past four years, and 2024 is no exception. According to recent data, the global silver market faced a staggering 117.6 million ounce shortfall in 2024—marking the fourth consecutive year of deficit. This follows deficits of 148.9 million ounces in 2023, 200.6 million in 2022, and a record-breaking 249.6 million ounce shortfall in 2021. These numbers illustrate a cumulative multi-year shortage that has seen nearly three-quarters of a billion ounces of silver pulled from above-ground inventories just to meet demand.
What’s more concerning is that these deficits persist despite relatively flat mine production. In 2024, mine output increased modestly by 1% year-on-year to 835 million ounces. Recycling added 193.2 million ounces, and net official sector sales contributed a modest 1.5 million ounces. Even with these inputs, total supply in 2024 was 1,030.6 million ounces, up only 2% from the previous year.
Meanwhile, total demand reached 1,148.3 million ounces—outpacing supply by over 117 million ounces. The most significant driver of this demand surge is industrial usage, which stood at 677.4 million ounces in 2024. This includes a record 465.6 million ounces used in electrical and electronics applications, with photovoltaics (solar panels) accounting for 195.7 million ounces. As global investment in renewable energy accelerates, silver’s role as a critical component in solar technology ensures that industrial demand will only rise further.
Amid tightening supply and soaring industrial usage, investor appetite for physical silver and silver-backed products continues to underpin the market’s bullish outlook. In 2024, a resurgence in coin, bar, and ETP demand highlights growing conviction among both retail and institutional buyers that silver remains undervalued relative to its fundamentals.
Coin and bar demand remains a strong contributor to silver’s bullish case. In 2024, investment demand rebounded by 7% to reach 204.4 million ounces. Despite the volatility of previous years, retail investors are returning to physical silver as both a hedge against inflation and a store of value in times of geopolitical uncertainty.
Jewelry demand also remains robust, with 196.2 million ounces consumed in 2024, while silverware contributed another 46 million ounces. Though these segments saw slight declines from 2023, they continue to represent substantial consumption that competes directly with industrial demand.
Notably, silver exchange-traded products (ETPs)—a major investment vehicle for institutional exposure—saw net additions of 70 million ounces in 2024, indicating that large investors are once again positioning for higher prices. When adjusting the market balance to exclude ETP flows, the underlying deficit was even greater at 187.6 million ounces, highlighting the structural nature of silver’s shortfall.
These combined forces—strong coin and bar demand, resilient jewelry and silverware consumption, and renewed institutional interest via ETPs—underscore the multifaceted strength of silver’s investment case. The 2024 rebound in demand across these segments reflects growing recognition of silver’s role as both a financial asset and an essential industrial metal.
With a deepening structural deficit and broad-based demand, silver’s supply-demand imbalance is becoming increasingly difficult for the market to ignore. Whether driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation concerns, or long-term supply constraints, the conditions supporting higher silver prices are aligning with growing investor conviction—setting the stage for a potential breakout.
Years of deficits have taken their toll on above-ground stockpiles. According to industry analysts, accessible silver inventories are being depleted at a pace that raises serious concerns about long-term availability. Physical silver held by exchanges and custodians has declined significantly since 2021, particularly in vaults such as those of COMEX and LBMA.
As the deficit drags on, fewer ounces remain available to meet future demand—especially from industrial buyers who require just-in-time deliveries. A growing number of analysts believe that if this trend continues unchecked, a physical shortage could trigger a dramatic repricing of silver in the global marketplace.
The relatively stagnant growth in mine production further exacerbates the issue. Silver mining is geographically concentrated, with Mexico, Peru, and China accounting for the bulk of global output. Political risk, environmental regulations, and declining ore grades in these regions limit the potential for significant increases in production.
Moreover, silver is often mined as a byproduct of other metals like gold, copper, and lead, meaning its supply is largely unresponsive to price. Even if silver prices rise dramatically, it won’t necessarily incentivize new production unless the primary metals also become more profitable. This disconnect between price and supply elasticity sets silver apart from other commodities.
On the technical side, long-term charts suggest that silver is coiling for a major breakout. Historical resistance levels around $30–$35 have been tested repeatedly over the past decade. A clean break above these levels could open the door to explosive upside, fueled by both momentum traders and institutional buyers.
The last time silver made a parabolic move—between 2009 and 2011—it surged from under $10 to nearly $50 per ounce. At that time, the market was not facing the persistent deficits we see today. The current environment presents an even more bullish setup, where fundamental tightness meets technical breakout potential.
Some prominent analysts and fund managers have modeled scenarios where silver exceeds $100 per ounce. These projections are based not only on inflation-adjusted comparisons to previous highs but also on silver’s strategic importance in emerging technologies and monetary hedging. If silver reclaims even a small fraction of investor interest seen during previous bull markets, the upside potential becomes enormous.
The silver market is approaching a tipping point. With industrial demand set to rise, investment interest resurging, and above-ground stocks being drawn down, the fundamental case for higher silver prices is as strong as it has ever been. Layer on top of that a powerful technical setup, and you have the ingredients for a significant price revaluation.
Investors watching the silver market would be wise to focus not just on price, but on the underlying data. The multi-year deficits, flat production growth, and growing demand from both industry and investment communities paint a clear picture: silver is undervalued, under-owned, and poised for a dramatic repricing.
If history is any guide—and if the supply-demand data is any indication—silver above $100 is not only possible, it may soon become inevitable.
Investing in Silver
Silver is a unique investment prospect. It is a volatile metal which often outperforms Gold in uptrends and underperforms in market declines. Its lower price-point makes it an ideal asset to accumulate through time
